After Rohin Dhar’s QQQ chart
Cost of an SF home in S&P 500 shares
Number of SPY shares required to buy the median San Francisco single-family home, 2000–2026.
A median SF home has fallen from about 3,749 SPY shares to about 2,757 — a -26% decline in S&P 500 terms — even as the dollar price rose fourfold.
The peak was 2009, when the house cost 8,207 shares after stocks collapsed. From there the share-count is down -66%. Over the same 2016–2026 window as the QQQ chart, the decline is 56%.
SPY shares per median SF home
2,865
2026, year-to-date
2026 uses year-to-date data. Click the chart or a marker to inspect a year.
Since 2000
-26%
3,749 → 2,757
Since 2009 peak
-66%
8,207 → 2,757
Since 2016
-56%
Same window as the QQQ chart
Dollar price of the house
4.0×
$536k → $2.14M
Buy the house, or buy the shares?
Drag to a purchase year. Each side starts with the same dollars — the median SF house that July.
2026
Bought the house
$2.14M
Paid $2.14M in 2026
Bought SPY instead
$2.22M
2,865 shares at $747
2026 in dollars
Median SF home
$2.14M
SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar)
SPY share
$747
Unadjusted July close
Home since then
1.0×
$2.14M today
SPY since then
1.0×
$776 today · price only
If you had bought SPY instead
$2.22M
2,865 SPY shares — the number that bought a median SF house in 2026 — are worth that today. The same house is $2.14M.
Stocks ahead by $84k · -4% in share-count terms
Price only — SPY dividends would widen the stock lead. No leverage, taxes, rent, or upkeep on either side.
Year by year
July readings. 2026 home price is the mid-year median; the live share count uses the August SPY print.
| Year | Home | SPY | Shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $536,058 | $143 | 3,749 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2001 | $575,353 | $121 | 4,741 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2002 | $619,274 | $91.16 | 6,793 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2003 | $660,036 | $99.39 | 6,641 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2004 | $758,589 | $111 | 6,844 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2005 | $871,042 | $124 | 7,039 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2006 | $883,056 | $128 | 6,907 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2007 | $918,544 | $146 | 6,303 | CAR annual median, existing SFR |
| 2008 | $869,200 | $127 | 6,853 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2009 | $810,900 | $98.81 | 8,207 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2010 | $792,615 | $110 | 7,188 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2011 | $763,730 | $129 | 5,905 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2012 | $793,940 | $138 | 5,765 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2013 | $901,000 | $169 | 5,341 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2014 | $1,110,085 | $193 | 5,749 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2015 | $1,298,500 | $211 | 6,169 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2016 | $1,351,500 | $217 | 6,225 | Zillow July SFR median, aligned to SFAR |
| 2017 | $1,415,000 | $247 | 5,734 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2018 | $1,600,000 | $281 | 5,687 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2019 | $1,620,000 | $297 | 5,447 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2020 | $1,650,000 | $327 | 5,053 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2021 | $1,900,000 | $439 | 4,333 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2022 | $1,850,000 | $412 | 4,490 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2023 | $1,550,000 | $458 | 3,386 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2024 | $1,625,000 | $551 | 2,950 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2025 | $1,710,000 | $632 | 2,705 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
| 2026 | $2,140,000 | $747 | 2,865 | SFAR July 3-month rolling median (Rohin Dhar) |
How this is built
Same construction as Rohin Dhar’s August 2026 chart — median San Francisco single-family price divided by the share price of an index ETF — with QQQ swapped for SPY and the window extended to 2000.
Home prices for 2017–2026 are Rohin’s July rolling three-month SFAR medians, so those years match his series exactly. 2000–2007 use the California Association of Realtors annual median for existing SF single-family homes. 2008–2016 use Zillow’s July median sale price for SF city single-family homes, lifted 6% to sit on the same SFAR mid-year level (the 2017–2019 overlap).
SPY prices are contemporaneous July closes, not dividend-adjusted. That is the number of shares you would actually have written a check for. Dividends would make the stock side look stronger. Neither side includes leverage, taxes, rent, or maintenance.
The live 2026 reading uses the July 2026 median home price ($2.14M) and the August 14, 2026 SPY close ($776.34).